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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare

The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Immense energy is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".

Nighttime Reality

As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.

Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.

Continuous Dangers

Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.

Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.

Failed Diplomacy

The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.

Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, endure.

Tactical Assessments

It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding civilians and areas but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.

Existing Situation

Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.

These two forces are influencing discussions.

Summary and Prospects

It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.

While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.